Possible? Plausible? Probable?

 

 

There is some weird thinking going on around us and a lot of it is being passed on to us through conversation. Well, at least for some of us.

If you don’t hear any of it, it might be because you are just not around anyone who thinks differently from you. And if I may, I would suggest you make some new friends. But that is a topic for another day.

If someone, let’s call her Georgia, presents an idea that you instinctively do not like, your instincts may be right. But before you reject it outright ask yourself these three questions:

1.   Is it possible? Is there any scientific reason that the idea could not be true? If it is not possible, then carefully and gently present the evidence to Georgia. If it is possible, then you owe it to Georgia to hear her out. Once you have settled that it is possible, you ask yourself the next question.

2.   Is it plausible? Maybe yes, maybe no. So, this is an argument that could go either way. Assuming your counter argument is likewise plausible, it is time for a sensible discussion, a comparison of evidences.

3.   Is it probable? This is when it passes the 50/50 point. The chance is greater than half that it is true. If you still believe Georgia is wrong, you need to listen to her case anyway. Accept the fact that you might just be wrong.

But here is the most important point. Go into the discussion and come out of it with a conviction that you and Georgia can still be friends. Let’s lose this idea that people who disagree about anything significant can’t be friends. I am not sure where that came from, but it is destructive to our society. And if you are serious about convincing someone of something, you have lost your opportunity to continue your persuasion. 

Reference: Koukl: Tactics